When Disaster Struck Valencia: Lessons from a Tragedy and How AI Could Help in the Future
A Day No One Will Forget
The night of October 29, 2024 will be etched in Valencia’s memory. The devastating weather phenomenon known as DANA has brought torrential downpours, turning peaceful streets into raging rivers. More than 500 liters of rain per square meter burst river banks, flooded entire villages, claimed more than 200 lives, left many missing and caused billions of dollars in damage.
This catastrophe is a painful reminder of the devastating potential of extreme weather and the critical importance of preparedness. In this article we will explore what happened, how it happened and what could have been done differently, exploring how new technologies can help us.
Chronology of a Catastrophe
Morning: Warnings Ignored
Spain’s meteorological agency, AEMET, issued a red alert for heavy rains, warning of up to 500 liters per square meter. Júcar’s Water Quality Measurement Association sounded the alarm and called for immediate preventive action as river levels rose sharply. But the warning was ignored. Schools remained open, businesses operated as usual, and residents went about their daily lives. Carlos Mazón, president of the Valencia, attended a tourism event that morning and assured attendees that the storm would pass by the evening, a claim that soon proved to be highly inaccurate.
Afternoon: False Calm, Real Danger
As office workers and school children struggled to get home, the rain became more severe and disrupted daily life. The rain didn’t stop for several hours. But as the storm subsided in some areas by late afternoon, a dangerous and false sense of security settled over the region. Many people came forward to check their vehicles or inspect their property.
Tragically, the danger is not over yet. Swollen rivers such as the Turia River and Magro River overflowed, and large amounts of water were released from upstream reservoirs to prevent dam collapse. These mostly invisible streams flowed downhill with disastrous force, flooding villages where the rain had seemingly stopped.
In Paiporta and Picanya, the floodwaters rose so quickly that many were caught off guard. Elderly residents found themselves trapped in ground-floor homes as the water reached two meters in height. Garages became death traps; vehicles were submerged in minutes. The harrowing tales of survival are etched in memory: families lowered bedsheets from balconies to rescue neighbors clinging to life.
Evening: Darkness and Despair
As night fell, Valencia was plunged into chaos. The water was still pouring down with great force, entire neighborhoods were cut off and many families were unable to contact their loved ones. Calls to emergency services went unanswered, overwhelmed by the magnitude of the disaster.
Families spent the night on rooftops, shivering in the cold as they waited to be rescued. Some people clung to trees for help, but the roar of the waters swallowed their cries for help. Many people had to get out of their vehicles to seek shelter. Despite the heroic efforts of the Military Emergency Unit (UME), which rescued a lot og people during the night, many were still missing. Rescue teams described scenes of devastation: streets full of floating vehicles, houses flooded to the roof, flooded garages and many people trapped.
The Morning After: A City in Ruins
At dawn, the true scale of the disaster came into focus. Streets were clogged with debris — cars piled atop each other, bridges swept away, and entire neighborhoods submerged. The death toll was rising: more and more people were confirmed dead and many were missing. In some of the worst affected areas, residents spoke of finding bodies dragged against walls or trapped in flooded garages.
Amid this devastation, Valencia’s community spirit shone brightly. Volunteers from across the region poured into affected areas, bringing food, water, and clothing. Families opened their homes to strangers. At the Ciutat de les Arts i les Ciències, thousands of Valencians formed long lines, waiting for buses to take them to flooded towns to help with rescues and cleanup. “Only the people can save the people,” became the rallying cry as neighbors banded together in an extraordinary display of solidarity.
Data to Understand the Magnitude of the Disaster
To put the devastation into perspective, here are some of the most staggering metrics:
- 845,371 citizens affected: Nearly 20% of the Valencian Community’s population felt the direct impact of this catastrophe.
- 562 square kilometers flooded: The affected area is equivalent to 3.5 times Brussels Region, 5.35 times Paris, or aprox. 80% of New York City or Berlin.
- 37,000 people rescued: Evacuations spanned flooded streets, trapped cars, and submerged homes — equal to the population of a small city.
- 600,000 people without potable water: More than 150,000 without electricity. Essential services were paralyzed.
- 120,000 vehicles damaged: Over 98% declared total losses.
- Over $4 billion in damages: The financial toll on homes, businesses, infrastructure, and livelihoods is almost incalculable.
Lessons Learned: How Valencia Can Prepare for the Future
The devastating DANA was not just a natural disaster, it was a wake-up call. The storm’s ferocity was unstoppable, but its devastating effects were a stark reminder of the need for better planning, technological innovation, and environmental protection.
Hear from the Experts: Political Responsibility
Natural disasters require the quick, decisive action science knows about. The warnings from AEMET and the Júcar Hydrographic Confederation were clear, but important steps were delayed or ignored. Decision-makers must prioritize expert advice over political calculations. This requires:
- Institutional Reforms: Governments must ensure that emergency agencies are adequately funded and empowered. The closure of Valencia’s Emergency Agency earlier this year, a decision framed by Carlos Mazon (Valencian President) as a cost-cutting measure, left the region critically underprepared.
- Clear protocols: An effective system of cooperation between local and national governments is essential to avoid the confusion and delays seen during this disaster.
- Transparent Leadership: Public trust eroded as political leaders, including President Mazón, appeared disconnected from the reality on the ground. Future leaders must act with urgency and transparency, putting citizens’ safety above all else.
The Role of Technology: How AI Can Transform Disaster Management
Valencia’s tragedy is a stark reminder of the devastation extreme weather events can cause. While we cannot prevent natural disasters, we can mitigate their impact through technology — especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI’s capacity to process vast datasets, simulate complex scenarios, and deliver actionable insights has opened new frontiers in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.
AI: Strengths and Challenges in Predicting Extreme Weather
Despite its transformative potential, AI struggles to predict extreme weather events like DANA due to their erratic nature and lack of sufficient historical data. Factors such as humidity, temperature, pressure, and topography interact in ways that are difficult to model accurately. As Gustau Camps, a researcher from the University of Valencia, explains:
“Current AI models predict average weather conditions well, but struggle with rare and extreme events. New algorithms focused on anomalies are in development, but there’s a long road ahead.”
That said, AI is making strides in several critical areas:
- Accelerating Climate Models: Traditional climate models are computationally intensive and slow. AI can optimize these processes, enabling higher-resolution simulations that span decades. This approach has been validated in publications like Nature Geoscience, demonstrating the potential of AI to refine long-term predictions.
- Improving Early Warning Systems: Machine learning algorithms can analyze meteorological data in real time, issuing hyper-localized alerts. Projects like the ONU’s Early Warning System for All are leveraging AI in every stage of disaster management, from initial observation to risk evaluation and impact prediction.
- Post-Disaster Mapping: AI-driven satellite imagery, “Inferring causal relations from observational long-term carbon and water fluxes records” developed by Valencia’s Image Processing Laboratory (IPL), can identify affected areas in real time, ensuring aid reaches those most in need. These systems are critical for coordinating large-scale evacuations and recovery efforts.
A Research Crisis in Spain: The Cost of Neglect
Spain invests just 1.4% of its GDP in R&D, lagging behind the EU average (2.3%) and countries like Germany (3.1%). This chronic underfunding has led to a brain drain, with nearly 20,000 Spanish scientists working abroad, and limited resources for institutions like IPL to fully develop life-saving technologies like AI flood mapping.
This is a missed opportunity for both innovation and public safety. Supporting scientific research is not just a local necessity — it’s a global imperative. Investing in AI and climate resilience must become a universal priority to safeguard communities worldwide from disasters like DANA.
Sustainability: A Necessary Shield Against Future Disasters
The DANA in Valencia underscores the urgent need for sustainability and climate resilience as the Mediterranean faces increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events. According to Spain’s National Climate Adaptation Plan (PNACC), €1 billion in annual investments until 2030 are needed to mitigate risks from floods, wildfires, and droughts.
Key measures include:
- Restoring Natural Barriers: Wetlands and forests, like La Albufera, act as natural shields against floods and droughts. Their preservation is both an environmental and economic imperative.
- Urban Resilience: Cities must implement green infrastructure, including permeable pavements and rain gardens, to manage stormwater and reduce urban heat islands.
- Advanced Water Management: Efficient irrigation, water reuse, and enhanced storage systems can combat growing water scarcity.
- Smart Infrastructure: Early warning systems and resilient building designs will better protect communities against climate extremes.
Investing in these strategies is not optional — it’s essential for safeguarding lives, economies, and ecosystems. As climate change accelerates, Valencia’s experience serves as a cautionary tale and a global call to action. Building resilience today ensures a sustainable and secure tomorrow.
Conclusion: A Call to Act Now
The devastation caused by DANA in Valencia is more than a tragic event; it is a warning of what lies ahead if we fail to act. From the lives lost to the billions in damages, the consequences of inaction are clear. Valencia’s experience highlights the urgent need for better governance, investment in cutting-edge technologies like AI, and a commitment to sustainability.
This is not just a challenge for Valencia, Spain, or even the Mediterranean — it is a global call to action. Climate change is here, and its effects are escalating. The lessons from Valencia are simple but powerful: listen to the science, act with urgency, and build resilience. This isn’t just about Valencia. This is about all of us — humans — and how we choose to act right now. Our future depends on it.
